Accurate Monsoon Rainfall Forecast for 2025
As it does every year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its forecast for this year’s southwest monsoon rainfall. According to the forecast, the monsoon rainfall across the country is expected to be above normal. From June to September, the overall rainfall is likely to be 105% of the long-term average.
The Pacific Ocean temperature, known as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which determines the monsoon’s intensity this year, is neutral, creating favourable conditions for good rainfall. If the temperature is higher, it is termed “El Niño,” and if lower, it is called “La Niña.” During El Niño conditions, the monsoon in India is adversely affected, often resulting in reduced rainfall. In 2023, an El Niño event led to drought conditions and significant losses in the state. However, this year, with El Niño in a neutral state, expectations for good rainfall have increased.
In addition to this, the temperature of the Indian Ocean and the snow cover over the Europe-Asia continent, which influence the monsoon, are also favourable. Due to these factors, indications suggest that this year’s monsoon will be above normal across the country. However, some regions, such as Ladakh, certain states in Northeast India, and parts of Tamil Nadu, may experience normal or below-normal rainfall.
According to the IMD’s map, most parts of Karnataka are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, which is a promising sign for monsoon-dependent regions. Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency in India, has also predicted normal rainfall, estimating it to be 103% of the long-term average. While the monsoon is expected to be normal in June, it may be slightly weak, with rainfall likely to intensify after July.
The global weather conditions this year resemble those of the 2022 monsoon. Although 2020 saw good overall rainfall, some parts of the state experienced extremely low rainfall at the onset of the monsoon, affecting sowing activities. Similarly, in North Karnataka, heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm in just a few days in July caused crop damage. Likewise, while above-normal rainfall is forecasted this year, the possibility of extremely high or low rainfall in certain areas or months cannot be ruled out.
The IMD will release another forecast in late May, along with the expected onset date of the monsoon. Therefore, regularly checking the IMD’s forecasts and planning activities accordingly can help mitigate the challenges posed by adverse weather conditions.
The map indicates:
Orange: Below-normal rainfall
Green: Normal rainfall
Blue: Above-normal rainfall
